04/09/1998 01230

REVENUE FORECASTING ANALYST 1

DEFINITION: This is analytical and technical work in the Pennsylvania Department of Revenue involving the forecasting of revenues and analysis of legislation, regulations, and policies relating to the Commonwealth's budget.

An employee in this class plans, organizes, and conducts projects and studies involving limited scope and complexity, or assists higher level analysts with more complex studies that involve issues across multiple tax disciplines. The incumbent has demonstrated proficiency in revenue forecasting, and in the design, development, and analysis of basic tax and micro and macro economic models. Research and statistical studies involve the assessment of costs, supply, demand, utilization, financial and economic trends, and program planning and funding. The employe in this class liaisons with Departmental line managers and bureau directors, Fiscal Policy Specialists in the Governor's Office of Budget, and bureau directors and line managers from other state agencies on findings related to issues involving revenue analysis and forecasting. The incumbent assists in the analysis of present and proposed tax programs and proposed, pending, or existing legislation, and modifies existing quantitative and structural models for use in determining estimates of the revenue impact, equity, ease of administration, and industry compliance of proposed and existing legislation. The employee in this class utilizes forecasting techniques and computer systems, and designs, develops, and writes program code for computer systems, programs, and models of limited scope or assists with more complex projects. Work is performed independently, typically under the general direction of a higher level analyst functioning as a lead worker, and is supervised by an administrative superior. Work is reviewed through the evaluation of completed projects, studies, and results achieved.

EXAMPLES OF WORK: Conducts fiscal analyses and assists in the preparation of revenue forecasts, fiscal notes, and revenue estimates and projections relating to the budget of the Commonwealth.

Plans, organizes, and conducts projects and studies of limited scope or projects involving single-tax issues, or assists higher level analysts with complex studies that involve issues across multiple tax disciplines.

Assists in the analysis of present and proposed tax programs and proposed, pending, or existing legislation, and designs and develops quantitative and structural models for use in determining estimates of the revenue impact and equity of proposed and existing legislation on taxpayers, the economy, and industry.

Liaisons with Departmental line managers and bureau directors, Fiscal Policy Specialists from the Governor's Office of Budget, and bureau directors from other state agencies on findings relating to tax revenue analysis and forecasting.

Utilizes forecasting techniques and computer systems, and designs, develops, and writes basic program code for computer systems, programs, and models.

Develops and updates/modifies statistical and econometric models involving the selection of population samples, the manipulation and validation of data, and the interpretation of results.

Develops methodologies to examine the revenue and distributional consequences of changes in federal, state, and local legislation by developing population samples and statistical and econometric techniques to impute various values to the model's data base.

Interfaces with legal and other Departmental staff in the development of the Department's legislative initiatives. This includes preparation of fiscal analyses and assisting with the drafting of proposed legislation.

Functions as a Department liaison with Fiscal Policy Specialists from the Governor's Office of the Budget in preparing the revenue estimates for the budget of the Commonwealth.

Drafts comprehensive statistical and analytical reports and makes presentations to Executive Staff.

Modifies and improves upon statistical models for existing programs and/or for areas where procedural precedent exists, which is used in the formulation of Departmental and/or statewide policy formulation, and/or the development of new legislative proposals.

Updates and modifies computerized data bases and programs for existing programs/projects with Departmental and statewide impact and provides systems and programming advice to Departmental line managers and bureau directors.

Monitors legislative proposals and statutory changes at the federal, state, and local level to determine their relevance to the overall Pennsylvania economy, including the potential impact on tax revenues, industry trends, and the competitiveness of the state tax structure.

Monitors the activities of national organizations involved in multi-state tax policy and administration such as the Federation of Tax Administrators and the Multi-state Tax Commission, and represents the Department at conferences sponsored by these organizations.

Employees in this class may participate in the performance of their subordinates work consistent with operational or organizational requirements.

REQUIRED KNOWLEDGES, SKILLS, AND ABILITIES: Knowledge of principles and methodology used in statistical and economic fiscal analysis.

Knowledge of principles and practices of micro and macro economics and economic analysis including quantitative and structural analysis and forecasting.

Knowledge of economic research, hypothesis testing, population/survey sampling techniques, and other special forecasting techniques designed to develop and execute complex and highly technical studies.

Knowledge of advanced mathematical principles and statistics including quantitative and statistical theories, regression analysis, and modeling techniques.

Knowledge of economic indicators relative to national, state, and local economic trends.

Knowledge of a variety of computer software including statistical and modeling software, spreadsheet, database, and word processing software.

Knowledge of federal, state, and local tax laws and tax structure governing policies, rules, and procedures and their interrelationships.

Knowledge of procedures and processes associated with revenue forecasting and analysis, and processes associated with policy
formulation and preparation of revenue estimates for the budget of the Commonwealth.

Knowledge of Department operations, programs, functions, interrelationships, policies rules, and regulations.

Ability to translate computational or manipulative procedures into a set of executable computer statements.

Ability to write formal research papers and technical memos and documentation on modeling results and developments.

Ability to plan and develop procedures necessary in the compilation of data for studies and projects, and to develop and modify models to test and validate hypotheses.

Ability to collect, analyze, and interpret complex statistical data and present interpretations in clear and concise formats.

Ability to apply sampling methodologies, quantitative and structural modeling techniques, and regression analysis and other quantitative methodologies in order to analyze, evaluate and validate models and
projects.

Ability to analyze extensive financial material, statistical publications, proposed and existing legislation, and economic trends and provide clear and concise recommendations to policy makers.

Ability to communicate effectively with staff at all levels and to actively participate in conferences and group deliberations.

Ability to utilize and apply computer programming techniques, including the identification of systems requirements, the development of systems procedures, and the analysis of computer program results.

Ability to learn Department of Revenue computer systems, applicable EDP principles, data processing software and hardware and computer programming, including systems design and development.

MINIMUM EXPERIENCE AND TRAINING: One year of experience as a Revenue Forecasting Associate;

                                                                                                                                                    or

One year of technical experience in revenue forecasting or appropriate statistical and fiscal analysis and a Master's Degree in economics, statistics, mathematics, computer science, public administration or a related field;

                                                                                                                                                   or

Two years of technical experience in revenue forecasting or appropriate statistical and fiscal analysis and a bachelor's degree including 30 credits in economics, statistics, mathematics and/or computer science, public administration or a related field;

                                                                                                                                                  or

Any equivalent combination of experience and training.