Job Code Pay Scale Group Pay Scale Type Bargaining Unit Civil Service or Non-Civil Service Last Executive Board Change Executive Board Change History
01240 09 ST A3 N 999-99 08/12/2005
Click on “Job Code” for current expanded job information.

04/09/1998 01240

REVENUE FORECASTING ANALYST 2

DEFINITION: This is advanced analytical and technical work in the Pennsylvania Department of Revenue involving the forecasting of revenues and analysis of legislation, regulations, and policies relating to the Commonwealth's budget.

An employee in this class plans, organizes, and conducts complex projects and studies involving multi-faceted issues or issues crossing multiple tax disciplines. Employees are regarded as subject-matter experts who have demonstrated expertise in revenue forecasting and in the design, development, and application of tax and micro and macro economic models. Projects involve complex and sensitive research and statistical analysis involving the assessment of costs, supply, demand, utilization, financial and economic trends, and program planning and funding. The employee in this class serves as a technical advisor to the Department's Executive Office and bureau directors, bureau directors in the Governor's Executive Office and the Governor's Office of Budget, and deputy secretaries from other state agencies on findings related to complex and sensitive revenue analysis and forecasting. The incumbent conducts analysis of present and proposed tax programs and proposed, pending, or existing legislation, and designs and develops quantitative and structural models for use in determining estimates of the revenue impact, equity, ease of administration, and industry compliance of proposed and existing legislation. The review and analysis of tax law changes by the General Assembly, the Governor's Office, other state agencies, and public and private entities is summarized in a fiscal note that includes a summary of the legislative change, a discussion of the policy implications, recommendations for technical amendments and policy alternatives, and a fiscal impact analysis. The employee in this class utilizes complex forecasting techniques and computer systems, and designs, develops, and writes program code for computer systems, programs, and models. The employee may also function as a lead worker over lower level Revenue Forecasting Analysts and Revenue Forecasting Associates in the coordination and direction of larger projects and studies. Work is performed independently under the general direction of an administrative superior. Work is reviewed through the evaluation of completed projects, studies, and results achieved.

EXAMPLES OF WORK: Designs, conducts, and prepares fiscal analyses and prepares revenue forecasts, fiscal notes, and revenue estimates relating to the Commonwealth's budget.

Plans, organizes, and conducts complex projects and studies involving multi-faceted issues or issues crossing multiple tax disciplines.

Conducts analyses of present and proposed tax programs and proposed, pending, or existing legislation, and designs and develops quantitative and structural models for use in determining estimates of the revenue impact and equity of proposed and existing legislation on taxpayers, the economy, and industry.

Functions as a lead worker over lower level analysts and Revenue Forecasting Associates in the coordination and direction of projects and studies.

Serves as a technical advisor to the Department's Executive Office and bureau directors, bureau directors in the Governor's Executive Office and the Governor's Office of Budget, and deputy secretaries from other state agencies on findings related to complex and sensitive revenue analysis and forecasting.

Utilizes complex forecasting techniques and computer systems, and designs, develops and writes program code for computer systems, programs, and models.

Designs and develops statistical and econometric models involving the design and selection of population samples, the manipulation and validation of data, and the interpretation of results.

Interprets revenue forecasts and projections and provides fiscal impact analyses and recommendations for changes to tax legislation, policy, rules, and regulations.

Conducts utilization studies of vendor provided statistical models and assesses the value and fiscal impact on the Commonwealth, industry, and the economy.

Develops methodologies to examine the revenue and distributional consequences of changes in federal, state, and local legislation by developing population samples and statistical and econometric techniques to impute various values to the model's data base.

Interfaces with legal and other Departmental staff in the development of the Department's legislative initiatives. This includes preparation of fiscal analyses and the drafting of language for proposed legislation.

Functions as a Department liaison with executives from the Governor's Office of the Budget in preparing the revenue estimates and projections relating to the budget of the Commonwealth.

Drafts comprehensive statistical and analytical reports, makes presentations to Executive Staff, and consults and discusses findings with legislative staff.

Builds statistical models for new programs and/or for areas with little or no procedural precedent which is used in the formulation of Departmental and/or statewide policy formulation, and/or the development of new legislative proposals.

Creates and maintains computerized data bases and programs for new programs/projects with Departmental and statewide impact and provides systems and programming advice to Departmental line managers and bureau directors.

Monitors legislative proposals and statutory changes at the federal, state, and local level to determine their relevance to the overall Pennsylvania economy, including the potential impact on tax revenues, industry trends, and the competitiveness of the state tax structure.

Monitors the activities of national organizations involved in multi-state tax policy and administration such as the Federation of Tax Administrators and the Multi-state Tax Commission, and represents the Department at conferences sponsored by these organizations.

Employees in this class may participate in the performance of their subordinates work consistent with operational or organizational requirements.

REQUIRED KNOWLEDGES, SKILLS, AND ABILITIES: Knowledge of principles and methodology used in statistical and economic fiscal analysis.

Knowledge of principles and practices of micro and macro economics and economic analysis including quantitative and structural analysis and forecasting.

Knowledge of economic research, hypothesis testing, population/survey sampling techniques, and other special forecasting techniques designed to develop and execute complex and highly technical studies.

Knowledge of advanced mathematical principles and statistics including quantitative and statistical theories, regression analysis, and modeling techniques.

Knowledge of economic indicators relative to national, state, and local economic trends.

Knowledge of Department computer systems, EDP principles, data processing software and hardware and computer programming, including systems design and development.

Knowledge of federal, state and local tax laws and tax structure governing policies, rules, and procedures and their interrelationships.

Knowledge of procedures and processes associated with revenue forecasting and analysis, and processes associated with policy formulation and preparation of revenue estimates and projections for the budget of the Commonwealth.

Knowledge of Department operations, programs, functions, interrelationships, policies, rules and regulations, and budget processes for the Commonwealth.

Ability to translate complex computational or manipulative procedures into a set of executable computer statements and to effectively communicate instructions to others.

Ability to write formal research papers and technical memos and documentation on modeling results and developments.

Ability to plan and develop procedures necessary in the compilation of data for major studies, and to develop and modify models to test and validate hypotheses.

Ability to collect, analyze, and interpret complex statistical data and present interpretations in clear concise format.

Ability to direct the work activities of co-workers in a team leader capacity and to communicate instructions to others clearly and concisely.

Ability to apply sampling methodologies, quantitative and structural modeling techniques, regression analysis, and other quantitative methodologies in order to analyze, evaluate, and validate models and projects.

Ability to analyze extensive financial material, statistical publications, proposed and existing legislation, and economic trends and provide clear and concise recommendations to policy makers.

Ability to comprehend all facets of assigned research problems, determine appropriate methods and techniques to be applied, oversee the development of the project, and ensure that the final product is complete, pertinent, and accurate.

Ability to communicate effectively with staff at all levels and to actively participate in conferences and group deliberations.

Ability to utilize and apply computer programming techniques, including the identification of systems requirements, the development of systems procedures, and the analysis of computer program results.

Ability to use a variety of computer software including statistical and modeling software, spreadsheet, database, and word processing software.

Ability to analyze vendor provided models and to recommend modifications the models to permit their effective use in a given study or project.

MINIMUM EXPERIENCE AND TRAINING: Two years of experience as a Revenue Forecasting Analyst 1;

                                                                                                                                                    or

Three years of technical experience in revenue forecasting or appropriate statistical and fiscal analysis and a Master's Degree in economics, statistics, mathematics, computer science, public administration or a related field;

                                                                                                                                                   or

Four years of technical experience in revenue forecasting or appropriate statistical and fiscal analysis and a bachelor's degree including 30 credits in economics, statistics, mathematics, public administration, computer science or a related field;

                                                                                                                                                  or

Any equivalent combination of experience and training.