04/09/1998 01250

REVENUE FORECASTING ANALYST MANAGER

DEFINITION: This is advanced analytical, technical, and managerial work in the Pennsylvania Department of Revenue involving the forecasting of revenues and analysis of legislation, regulations, and policies relating to the Commonwealth's budget.

An employee in this class is responsible for planning, organizing, directing, and controlling a unit of Revenue Forecasting Analysts, which may also include Revenue Forecasting Associates, engaged in modeling, forecasting, statistical and quantitative and structural analysis, and fiscal policy and planning. The incumbent oversees the design and development of basic and complex projects and studies involving single and multi-faceted issues and issues crossing multiple-tax disciplines.
Employees are regarded as policy experts who manage tax revenue forecasting programs and the design, development, and application of tax and micro and macro economic models. An employee in this class serves as a technical and policy advisor to the Secretary of Revenue, Departmental deputies, the Governor's Executive Staff, and Executive Staff in the Governor's Office of Budget on findings related to complex and sensitive revenue analysis and forecasting. The incumbent conducts and supervises analyses of present and proposed tax programs and proposed, pending, or existing legislation, and oversees the design and development of quantitative and structural models for use in determining estimates of the revenue impact, equity, ease of administration, and industry compliance of proposed and existing legislation. This employee ensures that complex forecasting techniques and computer systems are utilized properly and engages in and supervises the design and development of program code for complex computer systems, programs, and models. Work is performed independently under the general direction of an administrative superior. Work is reviewed through the evaluation of accomplished goals and objectives, completed projects, studies, and results achieved.

EXAMPLES OF WORK: Supervises Revenue Forecasting Analysts and Revenue Forecasting Associates in the collection, organization, and analysis of data to accomplish the forecasting of revenues generated through taxation and other methods and to project the effects of changes in legislation, tax policies, procedures, rules, and regulations.

Plans and organizes work, establishes goals and objectives, assigns work, determines work flow, evaluates subordinate work performance, and prepares and signs employee evaluations.

Interviews prospective employees and recommends employee selection or ranks applicants in terms of preferability for employment.

Receives, reviews, and approves or disapproves leave requests.

Receives grievances and complaints, conducts initial investigation into cause, discusses alternatives with employees, and resolves or recommends solutions to complaints.

Trains subordinate personnel in the processes and methods used in the performance of their duties and on applicable rules, regulations, and procedures.

Establishes procedures, time frames, and acceptable standards for the accomplishment of statistical, econometric, fiscal, and modeling studies.

Supervises, designs, conducts, and prepares fiscal analyses and prepares revenue forecasts, fiscal notes, and revenue estimates and projections relating to the budget of the Commonwealth.

Plans, organizes, supervises, and conducts complex projects and studies involving singular and multi-faceted issues and issues crossing multiple tax disciplines.

Supervises and conducts analyses of present and proposed tax programs and proposed, pending or existing legislation, and designs and develops quantitative and structural models for use in determining estimates of the revenue impact and equity of proposed and existing legislation on taxpayers, the economy, and industry.

Serves as a technical and policy advisor to the Secretary of Revenue, the Departmental deputies, the Governor's Executive Staff and Executive Staff in the Governor's Office of Budget on findings related to complex and sensitive revenue analyses and forecasting.

Utilizes complex forecasting techniques and computer systems, and designs, develops, and writes program code for computer systems, programs, and models.

Directs the design and development of statistical and econometric models involving the design and selection of population samples, the manipulation and validation of data, and the interpretation of results.

Interprets revenue forecasts and projections and provides fiscal impact analyses and recommendations for changes to tax legislation, policy, rules, and regulations.

Directs and conducts utilization studies of vendor-provided statistical models and assesses the value and fiscal impact on the Commonwealth, industry, and the economy.

Directs and conducts methodologies to examine the revenue and distributional consequences of changes in federal, state, and local legislation by developing population samples and statistical and econometric techniques to impute various values to the model's data base.

Interfaces with legal and other Departmental staff in the development of the Department's legislative initiatives which includes the preparation of fiscal analyses and the drafting of language for proposed legislation.

Functions as a Department liaison with executives from the Governor's Office of the Budget in preparing the revenue estimates and projections for the Commonwealth's budget.

Drafts comprehensive statistical and analytical reports and makes presentations to Executive Staff and consults and discusses findings with legislative staff.

Directs and develops statistical models for new and existing programs and/or for areas with little or no procedural precedent which is used in the formulation of Departmental and/or statewide policy formulation, and/or the development of new legislative proposals.

Oversees the creation and maintenance of computerized data bases and programs for new and existing programs/projects with Departmental and statewide impact, and provides systems and programming advice to Departmental program managers and bureau directors.

Monitors legislative proposals and statutory changes at the federal, state, and local level to determine their relevance to the overall Pennsylvania economy, including the potential impact on tax revenues, industry trends, and the competitiveness of the state tax structure.

Monitors the activities of national organizations involved in multi-state tax policy and administration such as the Federation of Tax Administrators and the Multi-state Tax Commission, and represents the Department at conferences sponsored by these organizations.

Employees in this class may participate in the performance of their subordinates work consistent with operational or organizational requirements.

REQUIRED KNOWLEDGES, SKILLS, AND ABILITIES: Knowledge of principles and methodology used in statistical and economic fiscal analysis.

Knowledge of principles and practices of micro and macro economics and economic analysis including quantitative and structural analysis and forecasting.

Knowledge of economic research, hypothesis testing, population/survey sampling techniques, and other special forecasting techniques designed to develop and execute complex and highly technical studies.

Knowledge of advanced mathematical principles and statistics including quantitative and statistical theories, regression analysis, and modeling techniques.

Knowledge of economic indicators relative to national, state, and local economic trends.

Knowledge of Departmental systems, EDP principles, data processing software and hardware, and computer programming, including systems design and development..

Knowledge of federal, state and local tax laws and tax structure governing policies, rules, and procedures and their interrelationships.

Knowledge of procedures and processes associated with revenue forecasting and analysis, processes associated with policy formulation, and preparation of revenue estimates and forecasting relating to the Commonwealth's budget.

Knowledge of Department operations, programs, functions, interrelationships, policies, rules and regulations, and Commonwealth budget processes.

Knowledge of the principles and practices of effective supervision.

Ability to supervise the work of subordinates performing highly technical and analytical work and coordinate the planning efforts with the work of other employees.

Ability to instruct subordinates, evaluate their work, and prepare employee performance evaluation reports.

Ability to use computer and data processing hardware and software for statistical, econometric and fiscal analysis, modeling, and forecasting.

Ability to translate complex computational or manipulative procedures into a set of executable computer statements and to effectively communicate instructions to others.

Ability to write formal research papers and technical memos and documentation on modeling results and developments.

Ability to plan and develop procedures necessary in the compilation of data for major studies, and to develop and modify models to test and validate hypotheses.

Ability to collect, analyze, and interpret complex statistical data and present interpretations in clear concise formats.

Ability to apply sampling methodologies, econometric and statistical techniques, regression analysis, and other quantitative methodologies in order to analyze, evaluate, and validate models and projects.

Ability to analyze extensive financial material, statistical publications, proposed and existing legislation, and economic trends, and provide clear and concise recommendations to policy makers.

Ability to communicate effectively with staff at all levels, public officials, and the general public, and to actively participate in conferences and group deliberations.

Ability to utilize and apply computer programming techniques, including the identification of systems requirements, the development of systems procedures, and the analysis of computer program results.

Ability to use a variety of computer software including statistical and modeling software, spreadsheet, database, and word processing software.

Ability to analyze vendor-provided models and to recommend modifications to the models to permit their effective use in a given study or project.

MINIMUM EXPERIENCE AND TRAINING: One year of experience as a Revenue Forecasting Analyst 2;

                                                                                                                                                    or

Four years of technical experience in revenue forecasting or appropriate statistical and fiscal analysis and a Master's Degree in economics, statistics, mathematics, computer science, public administration or a related field;

                                                                                                                                                   or

Five years of technical experience in revenue forecasting or appropriate statistical and fiscal analysis and a bachelor's degree including 30 credits in economics, statistics, mathematics, computer science, public administration or a related field;

                                                                                                                                                  or

Any equivalent combination of experience and training.