04/09/1998 01220

REVENUE FORECASTING ASSOCIATE

DEFINITION: This is entry level analytical and technical work in The Pennsylvania Department of Revenue involving the forecasting of revenues and analysis of legislation, regulations, and policies relating to the Commonwealth's budget.

An employee in this class is responsible for performing economic and econometric analysis to support the work involved with forecasting revenues, developing and evaluating statistical models, and conducting fiscal analyses. Work at this level is characterized by a reliance on proven techniques and methodologies and usually involves assignments where existing analyses are available for reference. The incumbent is required to perform research and statistical studies involving assessment of costs, supply, demand, utilization, financial and economic trends, and program planning and funding. The employee is expected to develop a sound working knowledge of federal, state, and local tax laws, rules, regulations, court decisions, and policies as well as the processes involved in the development of revenue projections and preparation of revenue estimates and projections for the budget of the Commonwealth. A review of existing quantitative and statistical models is conducted and the incumbent assists with modifying or enhancing existing models. Technical support is provided to Revenue Forecasting Analysts by gathering and evaluating data to
determine the validity and appropriateness of such information, which is used in the design and development of studies andmodels. Basic computer programming techniques are utilized to assist Forecasting Analysts with systems design, development, and modification. Work is performed with relative independence under the general direction of an administrative superior. Work is reviewed through the completion of assigned projects and evaluation of results achieved.

EXAMPLES OF WORK: Conducts fiscal analysis and assists in the preparation of revenue forecasts, fiscal notes, and certified estimates of revenues relating to the Commonwealth's budget.

Assists with projects and studies by gathering and validating data and determining its usefulness for studies and models.

Assists in the analysis of present and proposed tax programs and proposed, pending, or existing legislation, and designs and develops quantitative and structural models for use in determining estimates of the revenue impact and equity of proposed and existing legislation on taxpayers, the economy, and industry.

Utilizes forecasting techniques and computer systems, and designs, develops and writes basic program code for computer systems, programs, and models.

Updates/modifies statistical and econometric models involving the selection of population samples, the manipulation and validation of data, and the interpretation of results.

Assists in the development of methodologies used to examine the revenue and distributional consequences of changes in federal, state, and local legislation.

Extracts and evaluates data from a variety of sources which are used in developing population samples and statistical or econometric analyses.

Drafts statistical and analytical reports used in presentations to Executive Staff.

Assists in modifying and improving upon statistical models for existing programs and/or for areas where procedural precedent exists, which is used in the formulation of Departmental and/or statewide policy and the development of new legislative proposals.

Assists in updating and modifying computerized data bases and programs for existing programs/projects with Departmental and statewide impact and provides systems and programming advice to Departmental line managers and bureau directors.

Monitors legislative proposals and statutory changes at the federal, state, and local level to determine their relevance to the overall Pennsylvania economy, including the potential impact on tax revenues, industry trends, and the competitiveness of the state tax structure.

Monitors the activities of national organizations involved in multi-state tax policy and administration such as the Federation of Tax Administrators and the Multi-state Tax Commission, and attends conferences sponsored by these organizations.

Employees in this class may participate in the performance of their subordinates work consistent with operational or organizational requirements.

REQUIRED KNOWLEDGES, SKILLS, AND ABILITIES: Knowledge of principles and methodology used in statistical and economic fiscal analysis.

Knowledge of principles and practices of micro and macro economics and economic analysis including quantitative and structural analysis and forecasting.

Knowledge of economic research, hypothesis testing, population/survey sampling techniques, and other special forecasting techniques designed to develop and execute technical studies.

Knowledge of advanced mathematical principles and statistics including quantitative and statistical theories, regression analysis, and modeling techniques.

Knowledge of economic indicators relative to national, state, and local economic trends.

Knowledge of a variety of computer software applications including statistical and modeling software, spreadsheet, database, and word processing software.

Ability to learn Department operations, programs, functions, interrelationships, policies, rules, and regulations, and the Commonwealth's budget process.

Ability to attain an understanding of procedures and processes associated with revenue forecasting and analysis, and processes associated with policy formulation and preparation of revenue estimates and projects relating to the Commonwealth's budget process.

Ability to translate computational or manipulative procedures into a set of executable computer statements.

Ability to write formal research papers and technical memos and documentation on project results and developments.

Ability to collect, analyze, and interpret complex statistical data and present interpretations in clear and concise formats.

Ability to apply sampling methodologies, econometric and statistical techniques, regression analyses and other quantitative methodologies in order to analyze, evaluate, and validate models and projects.

Ability to analyze extensive financial material, statistical publications, proposed and existing legislation, and economic trends, and provide clear and concise recommendations to policy makers.

Ability to communicate effectively with staff at all levels and to actively participate in conferences and group deliberations.

Ability to utilize and apply computer programming techniques, including the identification of systems requirements, the development of systems procedures, and the analysis of computer program results.

Ability to learn Department of Revenue computer systems, applicable EDP principles, data processing software and hardware, and computer programming, including systems design and development.

MINIMUM EXPERIENCE AND TRAINING: A Master's Degree in economics, statistics, mathematics, computer science, public administration or a related field;

                                                                                                                                                         or

One year of technical experience in revenue forecasting or appropriate statistical and fiscal analysis and a bachelor's degree including 30 credits in economics, statistics, mathematics, computer science or a related field;

                                                                                                                                                        or

Any equivalent combination of experience and training.